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Two black swans

Black swans

Black swans, they exist. Nicholas Nassim Taleb has coined this brilliant metaphor for catastrophes, the frequency of which we dramatically underestimate and which we do not see coming. And sometimes there are two of them. (As a good doctor once told me: “You can have the plague and cholera at the same time”).

As difficult as it is for us to recognize a black swan before it flies in front of our foreheads, we consider it impossible that two or more black swans can haunt us.

Much like soldiers in World War II, who jumped into bomb craters thinking that the bombs did not fall in the same place twice. Only those who realized their mistake could never report it.

Admittedly, a danger, once recognized, is far from being averted. But the first step has been taken to avert the evil. Even if it is a double or triple one.